Doing the numbers

[trixtah]

I'm sure most of you don't give a toss about the NZ elections, other than Don Brash's (the leader of the National Party) comment that nukes would be "in NZ by lunchtime" if he had his way. NZ is vehemently nuclear-free, arms and reactors included. We are no longer part of the ANZUS treaty because the US took umbrage to the fact that we wouldn't be a little repository for their weapons of mass destruction (sorry, nuclear warhead-equipped ships).

As a historical note, one of the reasons the Labour government swept to power in the mid-80s was due to their anti-nuclear stance, as summarised by David Lange's speech to the Oxford Union a year later on just that issue.

...[T]here's no humanity at all in the logic which holds that my country, New Zealand, must be obliged to play host to nuclear weapons because others in the West are playing host to nuclear weapons. That is the logic which refuses to admit that there is any alternative to nuclear weapons, when plainly there is.

It is self-defeating logic, just as the weapons themselves are self-defeating: to compel an ally to accept nuclear weapons against the wishes of that ally is to take the moral position of totalitarianism, which allows for no self-determination, and which is exactly the evil that we are supposed to be fighting against.

Those words still bring tears to my eyes - I was in the 6th Form at school then, and developing my political consciousness - and it was all said in the thickest, bolshiest kiwi accent that you can imagine. David Lange was well-known for his mellifluousness, and his wit. Audio's here if you fancy a listen.

So, the Don will not have his wish of nukes in NZ. What a shame, eh? It's interesting, most of the hype in the NZ media over the last few weeks has been going on about the fact that the whole thing has been neck and neck, and Labour's support has dropped and yadda yadda yadda. But if you look at the actual numbers, it's not true.

Last year:

Labour	41.3	52
National	20.9	27
NZ First	10.4	13
ACT NZ	7.1	9
Greens	7.0	9
United Future NZ	6.7	8
Progressive Coalition	1.7	2

This year:

Labour	40.74	50
National	39.63	49
NZ First	5.84	7
Greens	5.07	6
Māori Party	1.98	4
United Future NZ	2.72	2
ACT	1.52	2
Progressives	1.21	1

The first figure is the vote percentage; the second is the total number of seats they get in Parliament (122 in total). We have a proportional system. Half of the seats are directly elected, the others are made up of "list" MPs to get the seats in proportion to the actual percentage of votes gained. If a party has less than 5% of votes and no electorate votes, they have no seats in Parliament. You can see the bottom parties have fewer than 5% of votes, but since they won an electorate or two, they have seats.

In essence, Labour hasn't actually lost anything to National. Labour lost 4 electorate seats to the Māori Party, which is new on the electoral scene. National has picked up pretty much all the seats lost from ACT (the "survival of the fittest" party), NZ First (the small-town-but-not-rural-over-45s party) and United Future; all of those parties are less socially- or economically-liberal compared to National, which is saying something. The Greens are holding reasonably intact.

So, our delightful, socially-liberal with the faint vestiges of "not allowing others to drown" ethos in NZ is alive and well. I'm glad.

The next thing now is for the leader of the Labour Party to start horse-trading to gain a Parliamentary majority and govern. If they go with the Greens, the Māori Party and old Jimbo from the Progressives (and vice versa) , they'll have just enough (by a one seat margin). United Future (the fundies who think that all queers should and will burn in hell) and NZ First (who think that all immigrants are dangerous terrorists out to snatch our jobs off us - as if) can just go hang. Here's hoping.

Comments

[filkferengi]

I don't usually take much interest in politics, but this was informative and well-written. Thanks for sharing your enthusiasm!